The syllabus says
Responses to the risk of hazard events
Before the event
- Discuss the usefulness of assessing risk before deciding the strategies of adjustment and response to a hazard.
- Describe attempts that have been made to reduce vulnerability by spreading the risk (aid, insurance) and by land-use planning (zoning).
Before the event
- Describe strategies designed to limit the damage from potential hazard events and disasters.
assessing risk
A risk assessment is a pre-event undertaking. It estimates the probability of a hazard event causing damage and therefore identifies what alterations can be made before the event in order to minimise impacts. Most risk assessments are based on two factors:
If both the severity and likelihood are high, the risk assessment has identified the main risks from a hazard event. This is useful because it allows governments, NGOs (like charities), communities and individuals to prioritise their actions.
A good example of the assessment of risk is described in the video about Manilla's potential destruction during earthquakes and tropical cyclones, as outlined on the Disasters page. The entire city has been mapped, allowing the identification of areas which are at particular risk from hazards (especially flooding). The emergency response is therefore planned in advance to focus on these at-risk areas.
- The severity of an impact
- The likelihood of an impact
If both the severity and likelihood are high, the risk assessment has identified the main risks from a hazard event. This is useful because it allows governments, NGOs (like charities), communities and individuals to prioritise their actions.
A good example of the assessment of risk is described in the video about Manilla's potential destruction during earthquakes and tropical cyclones, as outlined on the Disasters page. The entire city has been mapped, allowing the identification of areas which are at particular risk from hazards (especially flooding). The emergency response is therefore planned in advance to focus on these at-risk areas.
Hurricane Katrina and the 'Hurricane Pam simulation': A failed risk assessment
However, risk assessment is only useful if it is followed by action. Hurricane Katrina, a tropical cyclone that reached Category 5 level winds at one point, directly hit New Orleans in August 2005. The unique geography of New Orleans meant that the population was extremely vulnerable to flooding from hurricanes:
Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/b/b2/New_Orleans_Elevations.jpg/800px-New_Orleans_Elevations.jpg
These points were known prior to the hurricane, but there had in fact been extensive planning ahead of the hurricane. In July 2004, FEMA (the Federal Emergency Management Agency) concluded a simulation in which 'Hurricane Pam', a strong hurricane, hit New Orleans. The recommendations of the simulation were not heeded, and indeed the government later claimed that no-one had predicted such a potential disaster. The video below is taken from the aftermath of Hurricane Ivan (the previous year to Katrina) in which the risks are well described.
The actual results were an incredible variety of effects - and this largely fitted exactly with the predictions of the Hurricane Pam simulation.
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Source: http://www.leftbehind.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/New-Orleans-Hurricane-Katrina-Infographic-Final3-copy.jpg
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Reducing vulnerability: Modifying the loss
Once a risk assessment has been conducted, individuals and communities may take steps to reduce the impact of the event. These methods are known as 'modification':
- Modify vulnerability - change the way in which people live, so that they are less vulnerable (susceptible) to the impacts of the hazard event. This is a long term and difficult thing to achieve.
- Modify the event - this is a technological fix, to prevent or reduce the hazard event itself. In practice, this means changing the impacts of the event through better buildings or suppressing the event (e.g. building flood barriers to protect a specific part of a town). Though possible, it is impossible to be certain of preventing the impact of a massive hazard event.
- Modify the loss - once the potential for damage is accepted (on whatever scale), individuals and communities will modify the loss - that is, they will try to minimise their losses by sharing them out in some way. This is known as 'spreading the risk'. There are two main ways of spreading the risk - aid, and insurance.
Modifying the loss by spreading the risk: aid and insurance
Aid Most communities who suffer a disaster do not pay the full price of dealing with the impacts. Instead, they rely on donations from others. (By definition, a disaster means that the community needs support from outside; however, they might end up paying for it!) In most cases, the government of a country will have a method of releasing funds, such as in the USA where an event can be declared a Federal Disaster which opens up sources of funding. In this case, people receive help at no cost to themselves. |
The 'man with the boat' parable... One view of the reliance on the help of others!
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There are two problems with relying on aid:
- From the perspective of the recipient - the help may be insufficient, slow, focused on a small area, or last only in the short term, or not arrive at all. The recipient is at the mercy of the donor. Though charities such as the Red Cross and Oxfam provide disaster relief, they are usually not very well funded and unable to help all those who need it.
- From the perspective of the donor - the question of individual responsibility is raised, with the potential for people to be blamed for living in a hazard area or relying on help from others for an event they know is likely. This can lead to donor fatigue, where the public and agencies stop funding support due to a sense that the money isn't solving the root of the problem.
Insurance
This is most common as a strategy in HICs, and is much less common in LICs and MICs where people have less spare money. Insurance is where an individual (or business, or community) pays an insurance company a certain amount of money, known as a premium. If the hazard event occurs and the individual loses out, the individual will ask the company to reimburse them - this is known as a claim. The company then pays the costs, which is known as 'settling the claim'. In effect, the insurance company is gambling that in the long term, they receive more from the premiums every year than they have to pay out. They do this in two ways. First, they collect premiums from millions of individuals. In any given year, only a small percentage will actually make a claim and so there is plenty of money left to settle the claims and make a profit. Second, they collect premiums from individuals on a long term basis. If an individual makes many claims, the insurance company will assess them as being a high risk, and their premiums will go up - or, the company might refuse to insure the individual.
This is most common as a strategy in HICs, and is much less common in LICs and MICs where people have less spare money. Insurance is where an individual (or business, or community) pays an insurance company a certain amount of money, known as a premium. If the hazard event occurs and the individual loses out, the individual will ask the company to reimburse them - this is known as a claim. The company then pays the costs, which is known as 'settling the claim'. In effect, the insurance company is gambling that in the long term, they receive more from the premiums every year than they have to pay out. They do this in two ways. First, they collect premiums from millions of individuals. In any given year, only a small percentage will actually make a claim and so there is plenty of money left to settle the claims and make a profit. Second, they collect premiums from individuals on a long term basis. If an individual makes many claims, the insurance company will assess them as being a high risk, and their premiums will go up - or, the company might refuse to insure the individual.
Land use planning - zoning
This is best described as land use control. This effectively means that infrastructure is only allowed in certain areas that have been shown to have a relatively low risk of a serious hazard event. In practice, this is rarely successfully done in preparation for the event, and often is a response once a serious hazard event has occurred.
An example is the rebuilding following Typhoon Haiyan. After large sections of the coastline were devastated from winds and the storm surge associated with the tropical cyclone, the Philippine government Department of Environment and Natural Resources created a 'no build zone' within 40m of the coastline in Samar and Leyte. This is despite local people attempting to rebuild their homes within the danger zone for future hazards events. The video below (from June 2014) outlines this. |
The rebuilding outside of the 'no build zones' also includes the new types of buildings which are more sustainable and stronger.
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However, the government's zoning instructions have been criticised. They may give people the incorrect feeling that they are safe 40m from the coastline, when in fact a storm surge would be less devastating depending on the altitude of the land.
Before the event: Strategies to limit damage
Strategies before the event are largely similar to the mitigation strategies already studied. They include:
- Prediction
- Warning
- Practice and drills
- Alter the infrastructure to prevent damage
- Spread the risk through insurance
- Conduct risk assessments for specific areas